
| Long Island Hurricane Climatology |
| Epic Hurricanes
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Hurricane Frequency
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An empirical study of 20 past hurricanes that have impacted the New York City and Long Island coast regions by Scheffner and Butler (1996) found that the return period of a category 3 or greater hurricane is approximately 80 years. A strong category 3 or minimal category 4 hurricane has a return frequency of approximately 200 years. (Click graph to the right for larger image.) Therefore, it is not unlikely that another "epic" hurricane will strike the Long Island coastal region in the coming decades.
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Research done by hurricane experts at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) reveals that hurricane frequency in the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea regions runs on a 20-30 year cycle. (Time, 1998) The graphic to the left (Risk Prediction Initiative, 1998) clearly illustrates this cycle. The last intense period was in the 1950's and 1960's with a lag between 1970 and 1994. The hurricane frequency is on the upswing once again which increases the chances for landfall everywhere along the east coast of the U.S. |
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| Scott A. Mandia, Professor -
Physical Sciences T-206 Smithtown Sciences Bldg. 451-4104 mandias@sunysuffolk.edu <-- PREFERRED CONTACT METHOD http://www2.sunysuffolk.edu/mandias/
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